New York Red Bulls vs FC Dallas
The Fort Lauderdale Strikers hosted the New York Red Bulls in their first pre-season match of the 2011 season. The Strikers announced the game 48 hours before kickoff and around 3,000 people attended. I was one of those fans and brought along my Canon EOS Digital Rebel XTi.
- by Tyler Walter, writing from Fairfax, VA
As hard as it is to believe the league is still surviving this far in, given its structure, the 17th season will begin March 19 with the Seattle Sounders (once again) hosting the Los Angeles Galaxy. No brainer there, nothing better than showpiece your opening match in front of 40,000 passionate fans with the glitter players of Landon Donovan, David Beckham, along with fan favorites Freddy Montero, Kasey Keller and Steve Zakuani.
Some predictions like the one above are easy, but predicting teams' outcomes as well as Cup outcomes come down to figuring out what teams care about what tournaments and just simply throwing drawing names out of a hat.
Alright, it was not that difficult, and this year might be the season with the most disparity in MLS, which actually might be relishing, to hardcore fans at least.
1. New York Cosmos will become the 20th MLS franchise
Can anyone argue against this? Of course not.
With every underlying hint that MLS is keen on a second New York franchise, it's inevitable that the Cosmos will be announced as the 20th MLS club in the coming months. Pending the stadium deal of course.
In the announcement, we can all anticipate Garber saying how the Cosmos will stoke an intense inter-city derby with Red Bull New York, and rant about the importance of rivalries. Look forward to whatever cup name the league calls it. "Empire Derby", "N.Y. Derby"?
2. Real Salt Lake will win CONCACAF Champions League
Three days now until the long-waited match-up between Real Salt Lake and Columbus Crew. And while every soccer fan across the nation is dismissing Columbus' chances of progressing, they have their right to do so.
Dismantled with the loss of several key cogs, the Crew are poised for a painfully mediocre campaign of rebuilding. Doubt that means a last-place finish, but missing the MLS Cup Playoffs would be far from surprising. Especially if the Crew chase after the SuperLiga and U.S. Open Cup as retribution.
Salt Lake, on the other hand, is coming off what I would say is their best year ever. Yes, there was no MLS Cup, no Supporters Shield, nor a U.S. Open Cup title involved, but lets take a look at their season: including the playoffs, the regular season and the CONCACAF Champions League combined, Salt Lake only lost six matches. Not bad. Additionally, the club amassed over 20 victories.
Salt Lake ended up becoming the first American/MLS club to win a Champions League group, complimented by a second place overall finish in the league.
Poised to make the World Club Cup, it's going to take a series of roadblocks to kill their momentum.
3. D.C. United will win the U.S. Open Cup
The United seem to take advantage of their talent in the domestic cup tournament whenever their club does not have a realistic stab at any other piece of hardware.
Think about it. The United last won the Cup title in 2008, when they failed to qualify for the MLS Cup Playoffs, and failed to qualify out of their Champions League group. Additionally, in 2007, in a season highlighted by a semifinal run in Champions League, as well as a Supporters Shield league title, their Open Cup performance was horrendous, losing their opening Third Round proper to third-tier Harrisburg City Islanders.
Now, the United has a great crop of incoming players, most notably Charlie Davies. One may argue that Dax McCarty and Perry Kitchen were great pickups too. Should their young squad and recent acquisitions gel with current United youngsters like Andy Najar and Chris Pontius, the United might actually be a playoff bubble team headed into 2011. Still, too early.
But since only the United and the Sounders have only been the two MLS clubs in recent years to give the U.S. Open Cup some dignity, the club might actually just win the Open Cup.
4.Whitecaps will qualify for the MLS Cup Playoffs
In spite of the MLS spotlight being shined on and focused hard on the Pacific Northwest, it seems more times than not, that the talk is solely about the Timbers vs. Sounders rivalry. Not so much about the Whitecaps is thrown into the equation.
Additionally, their preseason success could preamble what to expect going into 2011.
Now, fair enough, preseason matches do not mean so much. D.C. United went 7-1-1 in preseason, including an way win at Santos Laguna, and looked what happened. Contrastingly, the Colorado Rapids had a 1-3-1 preseason record.
Perhaps it weakens my argument, but these matches can construct confidence within the club, and can carry over to the MLS season. Whether victories can rack up enough points for a post-season birth is up in the air.
I just think it will happen.
5. Chicago Fire will finish dead last
When it comes to major off-season loses for clubs, most soccer fans immediately declare Columbus as the team with the most loses.
I disagree, if any team had the most blows this offseason, it's Chicago Fire.
Lets begin listed each of the key players the club lost in the past couple of months: Wilman Conde, C.J. Brown, Brian McBride, Collins John, Freddie Ljungberg and Nery Castillo.
Fair enough, Castillo is only out on a loan, but he will miss a majority of the Fire's season. But in spite of that...that's a serious quantity of talent missing from the core players.
And the Fire were not even that solid last season. Coincidently, they finished in 10th place, like D.C. United did in 2009. Hints?
Yes, I'm going to make a gung-ho prediction and say Chicago Fire will reenact the United's horrors in 2011. It's not to say they'll barely nab any victories, nor lose 20 losses, because predicting a final record in MLS is a waste of analysis, but whatever the weakest records should be this season, the Fire will obtain that Wooden Spoon infamy.
6. Freddy Adu will not return to MLS
Listed next to promotion, relegation and single tables, another wish among certain MLS fans is for Freddy Adu to return to MLS, hoping it will ignite a comeback.
Some of the fuel for that may have been lost thanks to Charlie Davies and his loan deal with D.C. United, but as that cools down, the topic of Adu will likely heat up, especially when the summer transfer window opens and his loan to second-division Turkish club, [???] finishes up, presuming they do not want Adu. Given his track record, that seems likely.
In that circumstance, the soccer niche will–once again–erupt in the hopes that Adu once and for all tries to rebuild himself in the states.
We'll kick, scream and whine that Cooper's doing it, Davies' is doing it, and waste time pondering why Adu will not. Whatever the reason may be, it will result in Adu having haughty beliefs that MLS is lower than leagues he's being loaned to.
7. Some things will never change
As inevitable as it has already been, the same debates of promotion, relegation, single tables, meaningful vs. meaningless competitions and salary caps will not only linger through 2011, but intensify.
Easily this will not necessarily affect how MLS does day-to-day work, but it might once and for make them think twice about certain league formats if it consequently leads to a third-consecutive fluke, complimented with horrid TV ratings going into 2012.
8. An MLS team will win the SuperLiga
SuperLiga talks this offseason have been incredibly, incredibly dormant, and my skepticism about the 2011 series actually happening is decreasing day-by-day.
With the mess of U.S. Open Cup propers, the Gold Cup, World Cup qualifying, the All-Star game, European friendlies, CONCACAF Champions League Preliminary Rounds and the MLS regular season all ongoing this summer, it's going to be a miracle for the league to delegate some days for this tournament to happen.
Unless of course the league decides to host it in the Spring, which I see as the only realistic possibility if this tournament is to happen.
Should this happen, I see an MLS club winning the title, being the first to do so since the New Revolution in 2008. Who that club will be, that's a good question.
My supposition as to why an American club wins this tournament is because they'll be coming to form whereas the Mexican clubs will be burned out, using this as an opportunity to give reserves some exercise time. Then again, it could be a battle of the B-sides if MLS clubs follow suit.
Given the tournament rising importance, and envisions that it could become the Europa League of CONCACAF, it may be to MLS clubs' advantage should they field stronger squads and put interest into this, sometimes meaningless tournament.
9. MLS and Versus will not reach a TV deal
This rumor started as the MLS and Fox Soccer Channel contract was nearing expiration, and the excitement of the possibility of MLS matches televised on Versus could not have been more excited to daydream about.
The primary belief was that it could have been a continuation of soccer (as a spectator sport) could finally claw its way out of its niche and be on a channel that's not solely devoted to soccer, but to a series of sports such as cycling, rugby, hockey and other extreme sports.
Versus probably would have given MLS a decent amount of respect and promotion since they would be televising a top-tier sports league on their channel. It would be secondary to NHL coverage, but as a summer sport, it would likely received high-end priority.
If there was any actual debate about this, odds are nothing materialized due to two factors: ratings and money. It's like a college or job application. You can buffer it up with cute perks, but it comes down to grades and achievement. Something the league simply cannot bolster.
Consequently, while Versus probably had the upper hand in dictating contracts, MLS wanted the tables to turn, offering a fee that's way too overpriced. Versus likely offered a price too modest for what MLS considered standards.
As a result, we're in MLS just extending its contract with FSC for a year with the same terms. Either MLS will pay FSC a slightly higher fee in 2012, or the same deals extended. Which I see happening.
Versus? I wouldn't throw it out just yet, but I'm doubting it for the time being.
10. Red Bull New York will win the Supporters' Shield
If you have not heard, Hans Backe has declared that RBNY's primary goal headed into 2011 is winning the Supporters' Shield.
Yes, the Supporters' Shield. Backe's belief is that the Supporters Shield is a more prestigious honor to earn than the MLS Cup, citing that the MLS Cup is a "crapshoot" that a team with a hot streak over six or seven games can nab.
Indeed, the Shield requires much more consistency, and it's refreshing to see a club treat the Cup as a secondary honor to the Shield with equal incentives (Group Stage spot in the Champions League).
New York has the depth, star power and mentality to do so. It has a solid back-line led by Rafa Marquez and rising star Tim Ream, complemented by another rising star Juan Agudelo on the attacking flank with Thierry Henry. Add in the speed of Dane Richards and the consistency of Joel Lindpere, and that alone creates a nightmare for a team to face.
Though its season was thrown into uncertainty at the beginning of the 2010 campaign, the club found its balance and prevented the Eastern Conference clubs from looking like a total joke. Sad thing is, New York might be the only club on the East Coast for any honor this year.
Enough is enough though, and RBNY will finally earn its first major title. RBNY has waited far too long and deserves it.
11. Seattle Sounders FC will win MLS Cup 2011
When Sounders FC fans see their club's trophy record, they envision the U.S. Open Cup as a nice title to have, but the MLS Cup is the ultimate goal.
As for the Sounders FC themselves, winning the MLS Cup is the difference between earning a Group Stage spot in the Champions League, rather than a Preliminary Round spot. Ultimately, Champions League and Club World Cup glory are their most prestigious goals, but first the club's goal will be more near-sighted...and that's the MLS Cup.
Given their arsenal of weapons, Sounders FC should once again be a favorite to win the league title. The club still has veteran keeper Kasey Keller manning the nets, along with the entertaining duo of Fredy Montero and Steve Zakuani. They have up and coming Alvaro Fernandez, who
hopefully will gel with the club this season, along with the experienced Blaise Nkufo.
The scenario would simply be that the club has its high points, swoons and something as retribution for its shortcomings in the Open Cup and the Champions League: the MLS Cup. I predict they'll have a hot streak just before the postseason tournament.
It will help keep the rivalry flare sparkling with Portland and Vancouver going into 2012.
A version of this article appeared in Bleacher Report and in Tyler Talk.
- by Joe Curtis, writing from Miami
He may be hard to understand sometimes, but I like this kid a lot. John is a good kid, he didnt forget to thank his parents for their support. He is after all 20 years old and getting ready to play over 3,000 miles away from home, thats pretty hard for a parent. John said he is excited to be part of MLS and the NY Red Bulls, adding that he will give 100% for the team. I hope he makes a name for himself and has great success with the Red Bulls and in MLS.
- by Joe Curtis, writing from Miami
Major League Soccer is structured so that the league has total control of every team. Operating as a single entity is a survival strategy that keeps the struggling league running by distributing revenue evenly. This also means that the league, and not the individual team, own a player’s contract. This brings us to our first obstacle on our journey to success: the Designated Player rule. The 2010 version of the rule allows teams to sign two players that would be considered outside the Salary Cap and give the option to pay a “luxury tax” of $250,000 to sign a third. 2007 was supposed to be the turning point of American Soccer when David Beckham signed with the LA Galaxy.
This was not the first time a superstar signed to play in the States, Pele signed with the New York Cosmos of the North American Soccer League in 1975. Regarded as “The Greatest Player of All Time”, not even he succeeded in making soccer a major sport in the United States. This summer saw the signings of international superstars Thierry Henry and Rafael Marquez by the New York Red Bulls. It is going to take multiple big names to draw big crowds, which is something that we are more then capable of accomplishing. MLS needs to eventually restructure itself in order to allow teams to have greater control over operations, and give teams the ability to pursue talent. Luxury Taxes can stay in place in order to keep teams unable to acquire the top players on a somewhat even playing field. If the MLS makes this change not only will revenue increase, but it will also increase the level of competition in the league giving American players the opportunity to gain valuable experience at home. As competition increases so does the likelihood that American players will be better prepared for the International Level, as well as keep soccer prodigies like Giuseppe Rossi from deciding that they would rather represent another country.
The level of competition leads us the last obstacle Major League Soccer should address: How the League Champion is crowned. If this is restructured to mimic that of European leagues, Soccer could arguably appeal to Americans more than any other major sport. As I stated earlier winning is everything in the US, at the end of the season people want an undisputed champion holding the trophy. This is not always the case because in play-off format leagues “upsets” take place. Adopting the European league structure results in an undisputed champion. In addition this league structure also relegates the bottom three teams to the second tier and promotes the top three of the second tier to the first tier. Promotion and relegation once again increases the competition level, forcing teams to fight for their place in Major League Soccer. Promotions also add a special factor that appeals to all sports fans: The Cinderella Story. Cinderella teams appeal to Americans because they symbolize the American dream of achieving success through hard work and determination.
Making these major changes to the structure of the league could catapult Major League Soccer into the hearts of US sports fans. Analyzing what the majority of Americans expect from a sport would imply that this is exactly what needs to be done in order to have success. Americans caught a glimpse of why the world calls soccer “The Beautiful Game” and are giving the sport a second look. The time to grow is now, and like any other business looking to expand the first step is adapting to the needs of their audience or customer. The funny thing is, every other league in the world is already doing it.
this article was also featured on afootballreport.com